Electronic Supplement to
Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models I: First-Order Results

by J. Douglas Zechar, Danijel Schorlemmer, Maximilian J. Werner, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, David A. Rhoades, and Thomas H. Jordan

Forecast Rates for RELM Mainshock Forecasts

	Model
Earthquake	Ebel et al.	Helmstetter et al.	Kagan et al.	Shen et al.	Ward Combo	Ward Geodetic 8.1	Ward Geodetic 8.5	Ward Geologic	Ward Seismic	Ward Simulation	Wiemer & Schorlemmer
1	2.26E-3	9.17E-3	7.13E-4	1.44E-3	2.23E-3	2.66E-3	1.53E-3	1.95E-3	2.08E-3	3.73E-4	1.09E-2
2	7.11E-3	1.29E-2	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	1.03E-2
3	6.77E-4	5.83E-4	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	6.90E-4
4	4.83E-3	8.28E-3	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	4.95E-3
5	2.29E-4	4.11E-4	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	2.94E-8
6	2.46E-3	1.97E-3	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	3.28E-3
7 & 13	3.84E-3	1.70E-2	1.42E-3	2.88E-3	4.15E-3	4.96E-3	2.85E-3	3.63E-3	3.87E-3	3.26E-5	2.01E-2
11	1.15E-3	1.64E-4	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	5.08E-5
12	1.13E-4	2.87E-4	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	8.62E-4
14	9.03E-4	8.76E-4	5.19E-4	3.28E-4	9.68E-4	1.06E-3	6.13E-4	1.18E-3	6.59E-4	9.47E-4	1.00E-3
15	4.59E-3	5.91E-3	2.19E-3	3.77E-3	5.27E-3	5.57E-3	3.21E-3	4.04E-3	6.19E-3	1.32E-4	1.16E-2
16	9.61E-4	1.01E-3	6.87E-4	1.10E-3	1.07E-3	2.11E-3	1.21E-3	2.42E-4	8.51E-4	2.81E-6	5.07E-4
17	4.59E-4	1.03E-3	8.29E-4	4.38E-4	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	1.41E-4
18	3.22E-4	6.86E-4	5.23E-4	2.76E-4	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	8.07E-5
19	3.33E-4	5.16E-4	2.62E-4	3.97E-4	8.62E-4	1.12E-3	6.43E-4	7.60E-4	7.09E-4	1.71E-3	2.47E-4
20	2.09E-4	7.73E-5	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	1.76E-4
21	1.40E-3	7.62E-4	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	1.99E-4
22	9.28E-5	5.26E-5	1.29E-5	2.17E-5	4.76E-5	6.49E-5	3.73E-5	3.74E-5	4.03E-5	9.34E-6	1.51E-4
30	3.16E-3	8.11E-3	8.63E-4	4.38E-4	1.93E-3	1.14E-3	6.54E-4	2.38E-3	2.27E-3	4.74E-3	4.55E-3
Elsewhere	28.15	21.05	11.97	10.45	18.91	24.24	13.96	16.62	15.88	7.43	23.63

[ Back ]