Electronic Supplement to
Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models I: First-Order Results

by J. Douglas Zechar, Danijel Schorlemmer, Maximilian J. Werner, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, David A. Rhoades, and Thomas H. Jordan

Forecast Rates for RELM Mainshock+Aftershock Forecasts

  Model
Earthquake Bird & Liu Ebel et al. Helmstetter et al. Holliday et al. Kagan et al. Shen et al.
1 & 24 4.15e-03 9.64e-03 1.54e-02 3.70e-03 9.51e-04 2.02e-03
2 7.13e-03 3.39e-02 2.28e-02 9.30e-03 n/a n/a
3 1.53e-03 2.89e-03 9.79e-04 3.70e-03 n/a n/a
4 1.14e-02 2.19e-02 1.43e-02 5.87e-03 n/a n/a
5 3.64e-03 1.09e-03 7.25e-04 2.73e-05 n/a n/a
6 1.57e-03 1.02e-02 3.27e-03 2.94e-03 n/a n/a
7 & 8 & 16 8.01e-03 1.79e-02 2.96e-02 7.39e-03 1.90e-03 4.03e-03
9 & 10 4.63e-03 5.47e-03 8.05e-03 9.30e-03 2.89e-03 5.22e-03
11 1.75e-04 5.47e-03 2.89e-04 4.54e-05 n/a n/a
12 4.45e-04 4.82e-04 4.82e-04 2.29e-05 n/a n/a
13 3.50e-04 3.85e-03 1.47e-03 3.70e-03 6.92e-04 4.59e-04
14 1.58e-02 2.19e-02 1.04e-02 9.30e-03 2.92e-03 5.27e-03
15 8.46e-04 4.47e-03 1.76e-03 7.39e-04 9.15e-04 1.54e-03
17 8.54e-04 2.19e-03 1.83e-03 9.30e-03 1.11e-03 6.13e-04
18 5.56e-04 1.46e-03 1.18e-03 5.87e-03 6.97e-04 3.86e-04
19 4.97e-03 1.23e-03 8.24e-04 1.47e-03 3.49e-04 5.55e-04
20 2.30e-04 5.22e-04 1.13e-04 2.94e-04 n/a n/a
21 4.52e-04 4.94e-03 1.20e-03 1.17e-03 n/a n/a
22 1.13e-04 9.28e-05 7.05e-05 5.87e-05 1.72e-05 3.04e-05
23 5.10e-03 5.47e-03 1.52e-03 1.53e-05 7.96e-04 1.33e-03
24 4.15e-03 9.64e-03 1.54e-02 3.70e-03 9.51e-04 2.02e-03
25 5.99e-03 9.64e-03 3.76e-03 3.70e-03 1.07e-03 2.06e-03
26 7.97e-03 8.30e-03 2.36e-03 2.43e-05 1.26e-03 2.11e-03
27 1.08e-02 5.47e-03 3.99e-03 9.30e-03 2.04e-03 2.04e-03
28 7.48e-03 1.19e-02 4.67e-03 4.66e-03 1.34e-03 2.60e-03
29 1.95e-03 3.06e-03 1.67e-03 1.86e-03 4.23e-04 3.88e-04
30 2.62e-03 1.35e-02 1.36e-02 3.70e-04 1.15e-03 6.14e-04
31 3.41e-03 1.53e-02 1.75e-03 9.30e-03 1.90e-03 3.90e-03
Elsewhere 55.78 114.51 35.21 29.89 15.97 14.56

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