Electronic Supplement to
Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models I: First-Order Results

by J. Douglas Zechar, Danijel Schorlemmer, Maximilian J. Werner, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, David A. Rhoades, and Thomas H. Jordan

Detailed Comparison Test Results for RELM Mainshock Forecasts

  Helmstetter et al. Kagan et al. Shen et al. Ward Combo Ward Geodetic 8.1 Ward Geodetic 8.5 Ward Geologic Ward Seismic Ward Simulation Wiemer & Schorlemmer
Ebel et al. -0.72 ± 0.87
0.001, 0.004
0.09 ± 0.76
0.652, 0.450
-0.17 ± 0.69
0.214, 0.210
0.48 ± 0.45
0.006, 0.041
0.78 ± 0.63
0.003, 0.019
0.40 ± 0.63
0.046, 0.080
0.45 ± 0.63
0.033, 0.080
0.39 ± 0.44
0.014, 0.041
1.82 ± 2.62
0.036, 0.080
0.10 ± 2.38
0.574, 0.220
Helmstetter et al.   1.32 ± 0.97
0.001, 0.005
1.01 ± 0.86
0.001, 0.008
1.73 ± 0.82
0.001, 0.010
2.16 ± 1.00
0.000, 0.010
1.57 ± 1.00
0.001, 0.010
1.71 ± 0.89
0.000, 0.010
1.49 ± 0.74
0.000, 0.010
2.80 ± 2.85
0.019, 0.032
0.83 ± 2.28
0.060, 0.108
Kagan et al.     -0.29 ± 0.61
0.070, 0.040
0.12 ± 0.28
0.112, 0.203
0.56 ± 0.41
0.002, 0.010
-0.03 ± 0.41
0.413, 0.388
0.10 ± 0.67
0.328, 0.282
-0.12 ± 0.36
0.177, 0.388
1.20 ± 2.65
0.106, 0.171
-0.85 ± 1.74
0.068, 0.105
Shen et al.       0.60 ± 0.46
0.002, 0.019
1.02 ± 0.29
0.000, 0.010
0.44 ± 0.29
0.002, 0.010
0.59 ± 0.89
0.041, 0.052
0.37 ± 0.50
0.031, 0.080
1.69 ± 2.99
0.065, 0.143
-0.71 ± 1.41
0.063, 0.078
Ward Combo         0.44 ± 0.31
0.002, 0.014
-0.16 ± 0.31
0.087, 0.080
-0.02 ± 0.50
0.452, 0.119
-0.24 ± 0.18
0.002, 0.014
1.07 ± 2.58
0.123, 0.171
-1.95 ± 1.05
0.000, 0.010
Ward Geodetic 8.1           -0.59 ± 2.97
0.000, 0.010
-0.46 ± 0.77
0.056, 0.080
-0.68 ± 0.45
0.001, 0.010
0.64 ± 2.77
0.255, 0.331
-2.38 ± 1.20
0.000, 0.010
Ward Geodetic 8.5             0.14 ± 0.77
0.305, 0.282
-0.09 ± 0.45
0.290, 0.901
1.23 ± 2.77
0.120, 0.203
-1.79 ± 1.20
0.001, 0.025
Ward Geologic               -0.22 ± 0.49
0.108, 0.065
1.10 ± 2.28
0.093, 0.171
-1.93 ± 0.97
0.000, 0.014
Ward Seismic                 1.32 ± 2.59
0.083, 0.171
-1.71 ± 0.98
0.000, 0.014
Ward Simulator                   -3.02 ± 3.02
0.009, 0.025

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