Electronic Supplement to
Automatic Aftershock Forecasting: A Test Using Real-Time Seismicity Data in Japan

by Takahiro Omi, Yosihiko Ogata, Katsuhiko Shiomi, Bogdan Enescu, Kaoru Sawazaki, and Kazuyuki Aihara

Table S1. The Information Gains and Their Standard Errors of the High Sensitivity Seismograph Network (Hi-Net) and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Forecasts over the Generic Model for Each Sequence and Each Forecast Time Frame in the Case of the Forecast of Aftershocks with M > Mc

M > Mc Forecast Using the Hi-Net Catalog Forecast Using the JMA Catalog
Sequence Forecast Time Frame (hr) Mc n Information Gain Standard Error Information Gain Standard Error
2000 western Tottori 3–6 2.25 90 0.71 1.54 1.07 1.93
6–12 2.05 119 2.71 2.50 3.54 2.73
12–24 1.95 174 −1.33 2.17 −3.72 2.32
24–48 1.85 197 −0.52 2.47 0.29 0.90
2004 Chuetsu 3–6 2.65 61 31.13 9.19 30.18 11.04
6–12 2.25 123 54.47 12.57 52.94 12.85
12–24 2.05 179 79.83 14.54 80.60 14.09
24–48 2.15 195 129.24 20.06 122.23 17.58
2005 West Off Fukuoka 3–6 2.15 89 0.90 1.98 0.55 3.04
6–12 2.05 113 2.45 2.59 2.72 2.37
12–24 2.15 86 0.84 2.41 0.91 2.58
24–48 1.75 189 −5.57 6.24 2.31 3.64
2007 Noto Peninsula 3–6 2.25 95 13.57 6.38 14.63 4.85
6–12 2.15 125 23.20 7.48 25.85 7.20
12–24 2.15 125 26.21 7.42 28.59 8.59
24–48 1.95 193 45.51 9.81 53.13 11.08
2007 Off Chuetsu 3–6 2.15 56 −0.56 1.52 0.32 1.24
6–12 2.05 61 −2.87 1.75 −0.34 1.21
12–24 2.25 45 −3.18 2.92 −0.12 1.39
24–48 1.95 47 −17.50 2.38 −0.88 0.48
2008 Iwate–Miyagi Nairiku 3–6 2.25 120 4.30 3.56 4.26 4.41
6–12 2.15 173 16.24 6.65 16.65 5.58
12–24 1.85 307 30.06 9.19 30.33 7.71
24–48 2.05 200 16.09 6.95 18.07 7.17
2014 northern Nagano 3–6 1.25 47 104.37 11.01 102.03 9.24
6–12 1.25 70 73.79 11.85 74.56 11.60
12–24 1.25 105 39.64 9.21 37.27 10.08
24–48 1.05 123 83.26 9.62 85.13 10.74
All sequences 3–6 – 558 154.42 16.36 153.02 16.27
6–12 – 784 169.99 20.36 175.91 19.93
12–24 – 1021 172.07 21.33 173.85 21.15
24–48 – 1144 250.50 26.27 280.28 24.76
3–48 – 3507 746.99 42.75 783.07 41.50

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